@InCollection{ValeArOrCaOlLoSc:2021:BeClMo,
               author = "Vale, Mariana M. and Arias, Paola A. and Ortega, Geusep and 
                         Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Oliveira, Beatriz F. A. and Loyola, 
                         Rafael and Scarano, Fabio R.",
                title = "Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best 
                         Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation 
                         Options",
            booktitle = "Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best 
                         Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation 
                         Options",
            publisher = "Springer International Publishing",
                 year = "2021",
               editor = "Marques, M. C. M. and Grelle, C. E. V.",
                pages = "253--267",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "Species conservation, Restoration, General circulation models, 
                         Species extinction, Species distribution, Ecosystem-based 
                         adaptation.",
             abstract = "Ongoing anthropogenic climate change is becoming one of the major 
                         threats to biodiversity. Studies that aim at projecting the future 
                         impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity should use 
                         general circulation models (GCMs) that show a good performance in 
                         the region of study, an information that is lacking for the 
                         Atlantic Forest. Here, we evaluated the performance of different 
                         GCMs over the Atlantic Forest, describe the predicted climatic 
                         changes for the regions based on the best performing GCMs, review 
                         the literature on observed and predicted impacts of climate change 
                         on the Atlantic Forest biodiversity, and discuss adaptation 
                         strategies to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on the 
                         regions biodiversity. The Atlantic Forest, with its large 
                         latitudinal and altitudinal range, is under different climatic 
                         regimes, showing different climate change predictions in its 
                         northern and southern portions. Eight GCMs showed good performance 
                         for the following region: ACCESS10, CanCM4, CanESM1, CMCC-CM, 
                         HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC4h, and MPI-ESM-LR. Under a 
                         business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), these models project a mean 
                         temperature increase of 4.8 °C to 5.6 °C. Precipitation, however, 
                         did not show a clear trend in the Atlantic Forest as a whole, 
                         possibly because of the expected decrease in precipitation in its 
                         northern portion and increase in southern. There is a growing 
                         number of studies projecting the impacts of climate change on 
                         Atlantic Forest biodiversity, with a taxonomic bias toward 
                         terrestrial vertebrates, showing with high confidence that there 
                         is a high risk of biodiversity loss in the Atlantic Forest due to 
                         climate change. There are, however, significant knowledge gaps in 
                         altitudinal, freshwater, and coastal environments. Ecosystem-based 
                         adaptation (EbA), which uses ecosystems to promote societal 
                         adaptation to climate change, is particularly appropriate for the 
                         Atlantic Forest because of favorable legal background for 
                         conservation, restoration, and payment for ecosystem services in 
                         states within the biome; presence of influential civil society 
                         organizations and academic institutions; and thriving 
                         on-the-ground experiences in EbA.",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {University of 
                         Antioquia} and {University of Antioquia} and {Instituto Nacional 
                         de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo 
                         Cruz (FIOCRUZ)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)}",
                  doi = "10.1007/978-3-030-55322-7_12",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55322-7_12",
                 isbn = "9783030553227",
                label = "lattes: 7181547335252993 4 ValeArOrCaOlLoSc:2021:BeClMo",
             language = "pt",
                  url = "http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-030-55322-7_12",
        urlaccessdate = "10 maio 2024"
}